National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Discussion

North America - Central America - Gulf of Mexico - Caribbean - Atlantic Ocean

346 AXNT20 KNHC 221727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1227 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a 1027 mb Bermuda High centered near 27N64W and a 1009 mb Colombian Low centered at 10N75W is forcing winds of near gale over the central Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. Ship DGTX reported E 40 kt wind and 16 ft seas at 1500 UTC, confirming the gale conditions expected. High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in mainly the central Caribbean Sea, and north of Honduras during the next several days. Gale force winds will pulse at night, and into the early morning near the coast of Colombia, through Tuesday. No significant cold fronts are expected to reach the Caribbean for the next several days. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front extends from a deep 980 mb low north of our area at 40N48W west-southwestward to 33N71W, then as a stationary front to the coast of South Carolina. The front will push southeastward and bring SW gale conditions ahead of the front into our northeastern corner tonight. The gale conditions will be short-lived as the strongest pressure gradient pulls northeastward away from our area, and conditions should drop to a strong breeze by Sat afternoon. Seas will peak at 22 ft under a NW swell on Sat, before diminishing on Sun. For both of these Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Liberian coastline near 04N08W to 04N10W. The ITCZ continues from that point to near 00S51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ from 12W-16W and 20W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends from the SW coast of Louisiana southwestward to the southern tip of Texas. A surface trough exists along the coast of Mexico from 19N-24N. No significant convection is occurring in conjunction with the front or trough. Dense fog continues along the coast of Texas and Louisiana with multiple stations reporting 1/2 to 1/4 nm visibility. The fog extends over the Gulf of Mexico by up to 60 nm offshore of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. The fog is expected to diminish this afternoon. Winds across the Gulf are SE moderate breeze or less. The warm front will move into the Texas coastal plains later today. A cold front will move off the Texas coast on Saturday, reach from the western Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico by Sunday morning, before stalling and weakening from the Florida Keys to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The front will dissipate on Tuesday, as it moves northward as a warm front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low is forcing winds of near gale over the central Caribbean and reaching gale just north of Colombia. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean. See Special Features above for details about the Gale conditions and forecast discussion. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front north of our area will produce SW gale conditions ahead of the front into our northeastern corner tonight. See Special Features section above for more details and forecast discussion. Surface ridging extends across the Atlantic from 29N80W to a 1027 mb Bermuda high at 27N64W to 25N34W. A cold front east and south of the ridge extends from 32N22W to 20N41W, where it becomes a dissipating cold front reaching to 16N56W. A pre-frontal trough exists about a degree east of the front north of 22N. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front. Winds are moderate breeze or weaker in association with this frontal boundary. Long period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic Ocean waters east of the Lesser Antilles beginning tonight, before dissipating from Sunday through Tuesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea