National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Discussion

North America - Central America - Gulf of Mexico - Caribbean - Atlantic Ocean

780 AXNT20 KNHC 250527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, to the Equator along 28W, and then close to the Equator from 28W to 50W near the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are from 09N southward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a South Carolina 1007 mb low pressure center, through 32N77W, continuing across Lake Okeechobee in South Florida, to 23N89W in the Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary from 23N89W to 22N92W, into the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the SE of the line that passes through 26N82W 24N90W 21N97W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the coastal plains of Mexico from 22N to 24N between 97W and 99W. The current cold front will move to the NW Cuba and the Yucatan basin on Wednesday morning, and become diffuse by Wednesday evening. Another weak cold front will reach the Texas coast on Wednesday night, and move across the northwest and north central waters on Thursday and Thursday night, and then across the eastern Gulf from late Thursday night through Friday night as it slows down. This front will exit from the SE Gulf on Saturday, followed by weak high pres that will become centered over the northwest Gulf. The high pressure will slide eastward to the far north central Gulf by Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from 23N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, across the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea, into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 23N in the Atlantic Ocean southward, into the Caribbean Sea, between 54W and 70W, and from 12N to 15N between 70W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in parts of Hispaniola. The earlier numerous strong precipitation that was in northern sections of Colombia and NW parts of Venezuela, and in eastern Panama near the border with Colombia, about 6 hour ago or so, has weakened. Broken to overcast multilayered debris clouds remain from Colombia to Venezuela. Cyclonic wind flow. with an upper level inverted trough, spans the area from Venezuela to Colombia to Panama. A comparatively newer area of numerous strong precipitation is in Colombia from 05N to 07N between 73W and 76W. Scattered strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 76W and 80W, near the border of Colombia and Panama. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh-to-strong in the central Caribbean Sea during the overnight hours through Sunday night. Gentle to moderate winds will continue through the period, elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N47W to 31N48W. The front becomes stationary at 31N48W, and it continues to 27N55W 26N62W. A cold front extends from a South Carolina 1007 mb low pressure center, through 32N77W, continuing across Lake Okeechobee in South Florida, to 23N89W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 25N northward from 66W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N northward between 43W and 55W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 24N northward from 43W westward. An upper level trough extends from a northern Morocco cyclonic circulation, into northern sections of the Western Sahara, to 25N30W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic The current cold front, from South Carolina to Florida, will reach from 31N70W to the straits of Florida on Thursday, where it will stall and dissipate. A second cold front will move into the NW waters on Friday night. This front will reach from near 31N72W to the straits of Florida on Saturday night, and from 31N66W to W Cuba on Sunday night. The current cold front will reach from near 31N75W to the Straits of Florida by early Wednesday afternoon, and from near 31N73W to NW Cuba on Wednesday night, and then stall into Thursday. The front will dissipate during day on Thursday. A second cold front will move across the northwest waters on Friday night. This front will reach from near 31N72W to the Straits of Florida on Saturday night, and from near 31N66W to 25N72W to west-central Cuba by Sunday night. Weak high pressure will build across the area behind the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT