National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Discussion

Eastern Pacific Ocean

525 AXPZ20 KNHC 222127 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Feb 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N88W to 03N110W, then resumes from 01N124W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 05N between 97W and 100W, and also S of 03N between 123W and 129W. A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ, extending from 13N115W to 03N122W. Scattered moderate convection is within an area bounded by 20N112W to 17N102W to 06N105W to 02N119W to 10N113W to 20N112W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends from the central California across the central Baja California peninsula to the open Pacific waters near 25N118W. Fresh winds prevail over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte as well as the northern and central Gulf of California. Large NW swell associated with the front is spreading into the waters off Baja California Norte, with seas peaking near 14 ft. The fresh to strong winds will diminish this evening. Seas will continue to propagate along the length of the Baja peninsula while slowly subsiding. By Sat morning, seas 8 ft or greater will cover the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas will then subside below 8 ft Sun. Northerly winds will increase to fresh in the central and southern Gulf of California Sat night through Sun afternoon as the local pressure gradient tightens. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin Sun, with gale conditions possible Sun night into early Mon. Winds may peak around 40 kt late Sun night. Seas will build to up to 14 to 16 ft during the peak winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun, pulsing to strong tonight and Sat night. Winds will then strengthen Sun night through Wed night. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected through Mon with seas less than 5 ft. Winds will increase and pulse to fresh to strong at night Mon night and Tue night, with seas building in response to the increasing winds. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 9 ft range. NW swell is propagating across the waters N of 22N E of 134W. The swell will continue to propagate southward, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters N of 20N and E of 130W by late tonight before starting to subside. Another set of NW swell will propagate into the NW part of the discussion area Tue, spreading to the E through SE through mid week. $$ Lewitsky