National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Discussion

Eastern Pacific Ocean

667 AXPZ20 KNHC 181500 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1413 UTC Sat Aug 18 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Lane centered near 12.3N 138.2W at 1500 UTC, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 08N to 15N between 134W and 140W. Lane is forecast to maintain its intensity and cross into the central Pacific basin later today. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W from 04N to 17N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 101W and 106W, and from 12N to 16N between 96W and 101W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W from 05N to 16N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 113W and 119W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N83W to 09N90W to 08N96W to 11N114W to 10N121W. The ITCZ continues from 10N121W to 09N124W to 11N130W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N east of 81W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 85W and 91W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging enters the forecast waters near 30N127W and extends SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This will support gentle to moderate NW winds through early next week. Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will maintain a light wind regime over the Gulf of California through early next week. Strong N to NE gap winds are anticipated over the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will hover near 09N during the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be light to moderate. The only exception is over the Gulf of Papagayo, where winds will pulse to between moderate and fresh each night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Lane. Otherwise, ridging across the northern waters will support gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell N of the ITCZ. $$ AL