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Introduction: The purpose of this website is to provide a portal for atmospheric river forecasts and diagnostics from the NCEP GFS Ensemble Forecasts. This website has been developed as a cooperative effort between the Plymouth State University meteorology program and the University of California-San Diego Scripps Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E). The information contained on this website serves as a starting point for analyzing the current and forecasted meteorological conditions associated with atmospheric rivers and ultimately as a starting point for decision making efforts concerning water resource management related to atmospheric rivers and the extreme precipitation that they may cause in the one-to-two week time frame.

For any questions or comments on the AR Portal and the NCEP GFS forecasts herein, please contact Dr. Jason Cordeira at Plymouth State University at j-underscore-cordeira-at-plymouth-dot-edu.

AR Portal Status:
Displaying ensemble model data for 06Z on 2018-12-12
The deterministic GFS forecast products are now all running at the UCSD Scripps Institution of Oceanography Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes. View these products here.

7 Dec 2015 | NEW Beta Release: Russian River Watershed Precipitation Forecasts:
View watershed page here. Please provide feedback to j-underscore-cordeira-at-plymouth-dot-edu.

GFS Ensemble Forecasts: | Thumbnails & Probability | Landfall Tool | Plumes |

Day/Hour Thumbs Probs NCEP GFS Ensemble Thumbnail and Probability Forecasts
0 (F0) X X
1 (F24) X X
2 (F48) X X
3 (F72) X X
4 (F96) X X
5 (F120) X X
6 (F144) X X
7 (F168) X X
8 (F192) X X
9 (F216) X X
10 (F240) X X
11 (F264) X X
12 (F288) X X
13 (F312) X X
14 (F336) X X
15 (F360) X X
16 (F384) X X
Description: These plots are either (a) the probability of IVT exceeding 250 kg/m/s from the 20 members of the GFS Ensemble (shaded) and the IVT vector from the control forecast (vectors) or (b) the 1-20 members of the GFS Ensemble; each thumbnail illustrates the IVT magnitude (shaded according to scale) and the IVT magnitude/direction (vectors)..


U.S. West Coast AR Landfall Tool
Control IVT Ensemble Mean IVT Prob IVT>150 kg/m/s Prob IVT>250 kg/m/s Prob IVT>500 kg/m/s
dProg/dt Loop dProg/dt Loop dProg/dt Loop dProg/dt Loop dProg/dt Loop
Click on each image for additional information


U.S. West Coast Inland AR Tool
Control IVT Ensemble Mean IVT Prob IVT>150 kg/m/s Prob IVT>250 kg/m/s Prob IVT>500 kg/m/s
dProg/dt Loop dProg/dt Loop dProg/dt Loop dProg/dt Loop dProg/dt Loop
Click on each image for additional information


U.S. West Coast IVT Plume Diagrams
Choose your latitude below
48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32
The plume diagram above represents the integrated water vapor transport (IVT) forecast for each of the 20 perturbed GFS ensemble models (thin gray lines), the unperturbed GFS control forecast (black line), the 20-member ensemble mean (green line), and the maximum ensemble value at that forecast hour (red line) and minimum ensemble value at that forecast hour (blue line). The white shading represents the +/- 1 standard deviation forecast from the ensemble mean.