National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Discussion

North America - Central America - Gulf of Mexico - Caribbean - Atlantic Ocean

624 AXNT20 KNHC 211014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 614 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Sub-tropical Storm Andrea... Sub-tropical Storm Andrea is centered near 30.0N 69.0W, or about 255 nm WSW of Bermuda at 21/0900 UTC, moving N at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection extends outward to 300 nm in the SE quadrant. Satellite imagery indicates Andrea is very poorly organized and is interacting with an upper low that is very near the cyclone. Andrea is forecast to turn to the northeast this afternoon and east late tonight. Little change in strength is expected today, with dissipation on Wednesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... SE winds of 25-30 kt with frequent gusts to gale force are currently occurring in the northwest Gulf of Mexico north of 26N and west of 93W and will last through this morning due to the presence of a strong low pressure system in the Southern Plains. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 21/22W from 11N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 270 nm on either side of the wave axis mainly from 02N-07N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and extends to 12N18W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 03N24W and extends to 03N43W to 00N51W. Scattered moderate convection is near and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-36W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 46W-54W. Scattered moderate convection is also farther E from 00N-06N between 02W-15W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for information about the Gale Warning currently in effect for the northwest Gulf. A 1015 mb high is over the NE Gulf near 29N85W, where gentle winds prevail. Earlier ASCAT data show strong E winds off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Meanwhile, fresh to near-gale SE winds are over the western half of the basin. Smoke continues to be noted in satellite data and observations over the western Gulf, mainly west of 93W and south of 27N. Strong SE to S winds and building seas are expected today across the western Gulf between high pressure over the southeast U.S. and lower pressure over the Central Plains. Fresh to strong easterly winds near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula are possible each night as a trough moves W from land. Smoke and haze from fires across southern Mexico could reduce visibilities over the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection continues across the southwest Caribbean south of 16N and west of 76W. Isolated showers and tstorms are noted over the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. Moderate trades cover much of the basin with fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean. Strong winds are seen in earlier ASCAT data near the coasts of NW Venezuela, NE Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to occasionally strong trades are expected across most of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Thursday night. A tropical wave may approach the waters east of the Windward Islands by late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to section above for details on Sub-tropical Storm Andrea. Surface ridging is producing mostly fair weather in between Andrea and Florida. Isolated showers and tstorms are located between the N coast of Hispaniola and the convection associated with Andrea. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 33N54W and a 1021 mb high near 33N22W. A cold front is analyzed between these two highs from 32N38W to 28N47W. Isolated showers are possible along the front. North to northeast near gale conditions are forecast to persist off the coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through Wednesday. Aside from the area where Andrea is located, moderate winds will generally prevail across the region through Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen