National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Discussion

North America - Central America - Gulf of Mexico - Caribbean - Atlantic Ocean

328 AXNT20 KNHC 302234 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 634 PM EDT Sat May 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall in Central America... A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the eastern Pacific waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Areas of thunderstorms are impacting portions of Central America from the W part of Nicaragua northward to Southern Mexico. The gyre will move slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of Central America and southern Mexico within the next 24-48 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will create a dangerous situation for these areas with an extended period of active weather, and periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more details. Tropical cyclogenesis is possible in association with Central American Gyres, and a depression (TD Two-E) has developed within the gyre circulation in the eastern north Pacific. The depression will move inland over Guatemala Sunday and dissipate Sun night. However, the larger threat will continue to be the Central American Gyre, which will linger across Central America and southern Mexico well after the TD dissipates. ...Broad low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean... A 1015 mb low pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean near 31N59W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 330 nm E and 210 nm N quadrants of the center. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 7 to 10 ft, are in the vicinity of the low. Shower activity has decreased today in association with the area of low pressure. Some development of this system is still possible through tonight, and it could become a short- lived subtropical depression while it moves northwestward over the central Atlantic. After that time, further development is not anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Please read the Tropical Weather Outlook, www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W, from 20N southward, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 15N and W of 80W. The tropical wave will merge into the broad circulation around the Central American Gyre on Sun. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N20W to 06N26W to 04N34W. The ITCZ continues from 04N34W to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen near the monsoon trough from 04N-10N between the coast of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea to 28W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 03N to 09N between 28W-38W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are noted S of the ITCZ E of Brazil to 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the next few days. A stationary front extends across the northern waters from Louisiana to southern Texas. A surface trough extends from 26N93W to 18N94W in the western Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted within 120 nm E of the trough axis. Moderate to fresh winds prevail W of the trough axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the SW Gulf W of the trough, and 2-3 ft elsewhere. A weak cold front will move into the NE Gulf early Mon, then stall and dissipate in the E Gulf by early Tue. Winds and seas may increase over the SW Gulf on Mon and Tue as a Central American Gyre settles over SE Mexico and N Central America. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the next few days. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean, and will become absorbed into the circulation of the Central Americn Gyre Sunday. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras Mon through at least Thu night as Central American Gyre develops over N Central America and S Mexico. As the Bermuda High rebuilds to the north, E tradewinds north of Colombia should increase on Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about the 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 31N59W. A 1015 mb low pressure is center is near 31N59W with a trough extending southward to 24N60W. A surface trough extends from 26N70W to near the windward passage. Scattered moderate convection is seen mainly about 200 nm east of the trough. Elsewhere east of the Lesser Antilles an area of scattered showers is seen from 11N- 19N between 60W- 59W. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail across the tropics S of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. A ridge just north of the area will weaken by Sun ahead of a cold front moving south of 31N Sun night. The front will reach from Bermuda to S Florida on Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by Tue afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will increase to moderate or strong on Mon and Tue. Quiescent conditions should prevail across the waters on Wed and Thu. $$ AL