National Hurricane Center Discussion

	
424 
WTNT43 KNHC 230244
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Satellite imagery and partial scatterometer overpasses indicate
that the tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic has
developed enough circulation and organized convection to be
designated a tropical depression.  The convection is currently
organized into a large band over the western semicircle, with an
additional smaller band to the southeast.  The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate
from TAFB.

The initial motion is 270/14.  A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the depression should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the center passing
well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Near
the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn
northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the ridge.  The track
guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track is in best
agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.

The cyclone is forecast to be in a light to moderate easterly shear
environment over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3-4
days, and there are no obvious negative factors to prevent
strengthening.  The intensity forecast thus calls for steady
intensification through 96 h, with the intensity forecast lying near
the upper edge of the guidance from 48-96 h.  Some southwesterly
shear may develop near 120 h, so the forecast show little change in
strength from 96-120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 10.8N  20.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 10.8N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 11.1N  25.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 11.8N  28.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 12.6N  31.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 13.8N  36.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 15.5N  41.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 19.0N  45.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


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