WTNT42 KNHC 190239
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025

Gabrielle has managed to re-develop deep convection near its
low-level center this evening.  Thunderstorms in the northeast
quadrant formed early in the afternoon and have continued into the
evening, producing cloud top temperatures colder than -80 degrees C.
A scatterometer pass from 0012 UTC measured the eastern portion of
the circulation with wind speeds close to 40 kt.  However, these
data did not capture the radius of maximum wind, which is assumed to
have stronger winds.  Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 45
kt for this advisory.

Global models suggest environmental conditions will be unfavorable
for the next day or so while Gabrielle contends with
strong-to-moderate vertical wind shear and dry air intrusions.  By
this weekend, both of these impediments should subside and allow the
storm to gradually strengthen.  Once again, the intensity aids have
risen this cycle.  The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward
and now lies in the middle of the guidance envelope with a peak of
90 kt by day 4.

Gabrielle is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt.  The storm should
slowly turn toward the northwest over the next few days around the
periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic.
Late this weekend and into early next week, the storm is expected to
turn toward the north and northeast in the flow between the ridge
and a frontal system approaching from the west.  There are still
some speed differences among the numerical models, however the
overall track guidance spread is not as significant this cycle. The
latest official track forecast is slightly east of the previous
prediction and lies between the consensus aids to the west and
Google DeepMind to the east. Interests in Bermuda should continue to
monitor Gabrielle over the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 21.2N  53.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  19/1200Z 22.0N  54.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  20/0000Z 23.2N  56.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  20/1200Z 24.5N  58.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  21/0000Z 26.1N  59.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  21/1200Z 28.0N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  22/0000Z 29.9N  61.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  23/0000Z 34.6N  58.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 40.1N  48.6W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$