WTPZ41 KNHC 211439 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026 Somewhat surprisingly, the core of Fausto has lost organization during the past several hours. The central convection has become disorganized in conventional satellite imagery, and a 0913Z AMSR overpass indicated that the low-level center had become partly exposed to the north of the convection. This is likely due to a resurgence in the northerly vertical shear that has been present for the last several days. The satellite intensity estimates have decreased since the last advisory, and based on these the initial intensity is reduced to 65 kt. The initial motion is now estimated to be 305/10 kt. The track guidance forecasts a turn toward the west-northwest in the next 12 h or so as the subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone builds westward. A general west-northwestward to westward motion is then expected for the rest of the forecast period. The track guidance remains tightly clustered through about 72 h. Thereafter, there remains an increase in the north-south spread between the GFS on the north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF and Google DeepMind on the south side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track has minor adjustments from the previous track, is similar to the previous forecast at 120 h, and lies just a little to the north of center of the guidance envelope. The models continue to forecast that Fausto will reach a light-shear environment in the next 12-24 h. However, the cyclone is moving over slightly cooler sea surface temperatures, and as a result the intensity guidance is showing less strengthening during the first 36-48 h than previously. It should also be noted that the shear has been a bit stronger than forecast all through the life of Fausto. With that being said, the intensity forecast will follow the guidance in showing a resumed strengthening later today and a peak intensity in 36-60 h. Beyond that time, a gradual weakening trend is expected as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. The new forecast is nudged downward from the previous forecast for the first 48 h and changed little thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.3N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 16.8N 119.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 17.2N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 17.5N 123.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 17.8N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 18.2N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 18.6N 130.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 19.5N 135.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 20.3N 140.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$