000
AXNT20 KNHC 181736
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jan 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A cold front extending from northern Florida through the central
Bay of Campeche will progress southeastward today and exit the
basin this evening. Gale force NW winds and very rough seas will
immediately follow the front over the central and eastern Gulf
this afternoon, with gale force winds continuing offshore of
Veracruz into this evening. Winds will diminish below gale force
by tonight, with rough seas subsiding from north to south tonight
through Mon morning. Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore
Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.
Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras through
northern Central America:
Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through
midweek as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a pre-frontal
trough in the northwest Caribbean and a cold front approaching
the region from the northwest. The heaviest rainfall is expected
to occur early Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras into
northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be
possible. Please consult products from your local meteorological
services for additional information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14.5W and extends
to 01.5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01.5N20W to 01.5S42W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N east of
23W, and within 250 NM of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning, valid into this evening.
A cold front extends from northern Florida near 29N83W
southwestward through the central Bay of Campeche near 19N95.5W.
Gale force N to NW winds are noted via scatterometer satellite
data along and up to 75 NM behind the front from the northeastern
through southwestern Gulf, including strong gales offshore of
Veracruz. North of the gale force winds, widespread fresh to
strong N winds prevail. Very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are
occurring in tandem with the gales, as observed via recent
altimeter satellite data and buoy data, with widespread rough seas
of 8 to 11 ft noted elsewhere behind the front. South and east of
the front, moderate to fresh NW winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE and
out of the basin tonight. Strong to gale-force NW to N winds and
rough to very rough seas follow the front. Gale conditions are
expected to end early this evening. High pressure will build
southward into the region by Mon with improving marine conditions
from N to S. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of
the United States will bring fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
particularly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida Tue and Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras through midweek.
A surface trough over the northwestern Caribbean, extending from
19.5N86W to 15.5N84W, is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the region. Gusty and erratic winds and rapidly
building seas can be expected near this activity. Elsewhere,
widespread fresh to strong trade winds are noted via scatterometer
data over the central and eastern Caribbean as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between low pressure offshore of
northern Colombia and high pressure to the north. Recent
altimeter data show rough seas cover the southwestern through
eastern basin, with locally very rough seas to 12 ft noted
offshore of northwestern Colombia. Farther east, rough seas in E
swell prevail over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles and
through the passages into the eastern basin.
For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central
Caribbean today, before diminishing some tonight into mid-week as
a cold front enters the NW part of the basin. The front will move
through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall from eastern Cuba
to the coast of Honduras Mon night, before gradually dissipating.
This will lead to showers and thunderstorms and likely heavy
rainfall over Honduras and adjacent waters through mid-week, with
fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas behind the front through
Tue night. Offshore Colombia, the trade winds will pulse to near
gale force each night through Tue night, then fresh to strong
winds will persist the remainder of the forecast period.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front entering the northwest tropical Atlantic is
supporting fresh to strong NW winds and building seas offshore of
northern Florida. Farther east, recent scatterometer data show
fresh to locally strong S to SE winds are occurring as the
pressure gradient increases between the front and a strong 1036 mb
Azores high pressure. This ridge is dominating much of the open
tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds east
of 65W. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted via altimeter and buoy
data over the open waters, with very rough seas of 12 to 13 ft
occurring from 18N to 25N between 28N and 43W. Elsewhere, a cold
front extending from northwest Africa to 31N20W is supporting
strong to near-gale force N winds and 12 to 15 ft seas near and
north of the front.
For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Atlantic high pressure
will enhance the trades up to strong speeds east of 65W through
Thu. A cold front moving off the SE of the United States this
morning will bring fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas north
of 27N through tonight. In addition, the pressure gradient between
the Atlantic high pressure and the front will also support fresh
to strong southerly winds N of 27N and ahead of the front through
tonight. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas
by Mon morning, then stall from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas on Tue before dissipating on Wed. High pressure building
over the SE of the United States will boost NE winds to fresh to
strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits
into the middle of the week.
$$
ADAMS
AXNT20 KNHC 181736
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Jan 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A cold front extending from northern Florida through the central
Bay of Campeche will progress southeastward today and exit the
basin this evening. Gale force NW winds and very rough seas will
immediately follow the front over the central and eastern Gulf
this afternoon, with gale force winds continuing offshore of
Veracruz into this evening. Winds will diminish below gale force
by tonight, with rough seas subsiding from north to south tonight
through Mon morning. Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore
Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.
Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras through
northern Central America:
Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through
midweek as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a pre-frontal
trough in the northwest Caribbean and a cold front approaching
the region from the northwest. The heaviest rainfall is expected
to occur early Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras into
northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be
possible. Please consult products from your local meteorological
services for additional information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14.5W and extends
to 01.5N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01.5N20W to 01.5S42W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N east of
23W, and within 250 NM of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning, valid into this evening.
A cold front extends from northern Florida near 29N83W
southwestward through the central Bay of Campeche near 19N95.5W.
Gale force N to NW winds are noted via scatterometer satellite
data along and up to 75 NM behind the front from the northeastern
through southwestern Gulf, including strong gales offshore of
Veracruz. North of the gale force winds, widespread fresh to
strong N winds prevail. Very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are
occurring in tandem with the gales, as observed via recent
altimeter satellite data and buoy data, with widespread rough seas
of 8 to 11 ft noted elsewhere behind the front. South and east of
the front, moderate to fresh NW winds and slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE and
out of the basin tonight. Strong to gale-force NW to N winds and
rough to very rough seas follow the front. Gale conditions are
expected to end early this evening. High pressure will build
southward into the region by Mon with improving marine conditions
from N to S. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of
the United States will bring fresh to locally strong NE to E winds
particularly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida Tue and Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras through midweek.
A surface trough over the northwestern Caribbean, extending from
19.5N86W to 15.5N84W, is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the region. Gusty and erratic winds and rapidly
building seas can be expected near this activity. Elsewhere,
widespread fresh to strong trade winds are noted via scatterometer
data over the central and eastern Caribbean as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between low pressure offshore of
northern Colombia and high pressure to the north. Recent
altimeter data show rough seas cover the southwestern through
eastern basin, with locally very rough seas to 12 ft noted
offshore of northwestern Colombia. Farther east, rough seas in E
swell prevail over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles and
through the passages into the eastern basin.
For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central
Caribbean today, before diminishing some tonight into mid-week as
a cold front enters the NW part of the basin. The front will move
through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall from eastern Cuba
to the coast of Honduras Mon night, before gradually dissipating.
This will lead to showers and thunderstorms and likely heavy
rainfall over Honduras and adjacent waters through mid-week, with
fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas behind the front through
Tue night. Offshore Colombia, the trade winds will pulse to near
gale force each night through Tue night, then fresh to strong
winds will persist the remainder of the forecast period.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front entering the northwest tropical Atlantic is
supporting fresh to strong NW winds and building seas offshore of
northern Florida. Farther east, recent scatterometer data show
fresh to locally strong S to SE winds are occurring as the
pressure gradient increases between the front and a strong 1036 mb
Azores high pressure. This ridge is dominating much of the open
tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds east
of 65W. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted via altimeter and buoy
data over the open waters, with very rough seas of 12 to 13 ft
occurring from 18N to 25N between 28N and 43W. Elsewhere, a cold
front extending from northwest Africa to 31N20W is supporting
strong to near-gale force N winds and 12 to 15 ft seas near and
north of the front.
For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Atlantic high pressure
will enhance the trades up to strong speeds east of 65W through
Thu. A cold front moving off the SE of the United States this
morning will bring fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas north
of 27N through tonight. In addition, the pressure gradient between
the Atlantic high pressure and the front will also support fresh
to strong southerly winds N of 27N and ahead of the front through
tonight. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas
by Mon morning, then stall from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas on Tue before dissipating on Wed. High pressure building
over the SE of the United States will boost NE winds to fresh to
strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits
into the middle of the week.
$$
ADAMS