000
AXNT20 KNHC 120603
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to
05N18W. An ITCZ meanders westward from 05N18W to 04N31W to 05N47W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to
110 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 21W and 30W, and
south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N east of 16W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is seen up to 50 nm along either
side of the ITCZ west of 30W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak cold front extends westward from the Great Bahama Bank
across the Florida Straits to 25N87W, then continues as a
stationary front to 25N96W. Patchy showers are present near and up
to 85 nm north of this boundary. A surface trough is causing
widely scattered showers at the southwestern Gulf. A 1021 n mb
high just south of the Florida Panhandle is supporting mainly
gentle NE to SSE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft at the north-central
and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to
SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the front will stall overnight and dissipate.
Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds will
prevail in the eastern Bay of Campeche and offshore of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night through Sat. Otherwise, moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the Gulf
through Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to
enter the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing increasing winds
and building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach
the southern Gulf along 23N by Mon morning and move south of the
Gulf late Mon night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two surface trough embedded within the trade-wind flow are
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the
Gulf of Honduras, and the southwestern basin. Convergent trades
are producing similar conditions near the Mona Passage. Fresh to
strong ENE to E trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are occurring at the
south-central, and part of the southwestern basin. Moderate to
fresh ENE to E trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the north-
central basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds
and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over
the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun morning as a
moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and
migrating high pressure to the north along 29N. Strong E winds
will pulse to near gale-force at night offshore of northern
Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough
seas in large E swell will prevail over the Atlantic waters and
through the passages into the eastern basin through this weekend.
Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the northwestern
basin on Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas
behind the front. This front may reach from central Cuba to Belize
Tue morning and begin to stall.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front curves southwestward from northwest of Bermuda
across 31N69W and the northwest Bahamas to beyond the Florida
Straits. Patchy showers are found near and up to 50 nm southeast
of this feature. Another stronger cold front reaches
southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N64W to
northeast of the southeast Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen near and up to 175 nm southeast of this
front. Scattered showers are noted at the central Atlantic near
the western end of a frontal boundary, north of 26N between 35W
and 40W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the very
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
Fresh to strong with locally near-gale NW to SW winds and 8 to 10
ft seas are evident near the two cold fronts, north of 27N
between 51W and 72W. Farther east, moderate to fresh ENE to ESE
winds with 10 to 12 ft seas in large NW swell. For the rest of the
Atlantic waters north of 24N between 35W and the Florida/souther
Georgia, gentle to moderate SE to S to SW winds and seas of 6 to
10 ft in large northerly swell. For the tropical waters from 05N
to 20N/23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong NE
to ESE trades with 8 to 11 ft seas exist. For the remainder of
the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally strong
NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, the two cold fronts will rapidly progress
eastward and merge across the central Atlantic through Fri.
Widespread strong to locally near gale-force SW winds will occur
ahead of the leading front, generally north of 28N and east of
70W, into Fri afternoon. West of the cold fronts, fresh to locally
strong W to NW winds are anticipated, north of 28N from offshore
of Florida to 70W through late tonight. Rough seas in SW swell and
then NW swell are expected north of 27N, with seas slowly
subsiding from west to east into this weekend. Elsewhere in the
central Atlantic, rough seas in mixed N and SE swell will prevail
through Fri morning, with a new mixed swell reinforcing rough seas
this weekend. Looking ahead, the next cold front is slated to
push off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with
increasing winds and building seas expected behind the front.
$$
Chan
AXNT20 KNHC 120603
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to
05N18W. An ITCZ meanders westward from 05N18W to 04N31W to 05N47W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to
110 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 21W and 30W, and
south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N east of 16W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is seen up to 50 nm along either
side of the ITCZ west of 30W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak cold front extends westward from the Great Bahama Bank
across the Florida Straits to 25N87W, then continues as a
stationary front to 25N96W. Patchy showers are present near and up
to 85 nm north of this boundary. A surface trough is causing
widely scattered showers at the southwestern Gulf. A 1021 n mb
high just south of the Florida Panhandle is supporting mainly
gentle NE to SSE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft at the north-central
and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to
SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.
For the forecast, the front will stall overnight and dissipate.
Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds will
prevail in the eastern Bay of Campeche and offshore of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night through Sat. Otherwise, moderate or weaker
winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the Gulf
through Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to
enter the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing increasing winds
and building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach
the southern Gulf along 23N by Mon morning and move south of the
Gulf late Mon night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two surface trough embedded within the trade-wind flow are
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the
Gulf of Honduras, and the southwestern basin. Convergent trades
are producing similar conditions near the Mona Passage. Fresh to
strong ENE to E trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are occurring at the
south-central, and part of the southwestern basin. Moderate to
fresh ENE to E trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the north-
central basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds
and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over
the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun morning as a
moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and
migrating high pressure to the north along 29N. Strong E winds
will pulse to near gale-force at night offshore of northern
Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough
seas in large E swell will prevail over the Atlantic waters and
through the passages into the eastern basin through this weekend.
Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the northwestern
basin on Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas
behind the front. This front may reach from central Cuba to Belize
Tue morning and begin to stall.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front curves southwestward from northwest of Bermuda
across 31N69W and the northwest Bahamas to beyond the Florida
Straits. Patchy showers are found near and up to 50 nm southeast
of this feature. Another stronger cold front reaches
southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N64W to
northeast of the southeast Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen near and up to 175 nm southeast of this
front. Scattered showers are noted at the central Atlantic near
the western end of a frontal boundary, north of 26N between 35W
and 40W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the very
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.
Fresh to strong with locally near-gale NW to SW winds and 8 to 10
ft seas are evident near the two cold fronts, north of 27N
between 51W and 72W. Farther east, moderate to fresh ENE to ESE
winds with 10 to 12 ft seas in large NW swell. For the rest of the
Atlantic waters north of 24N between 35W and the Florida/souther
Georgia, gentle to moderate SE to S to SW winds and seas of 6 to
10 ft in large northerly swell. For the tropical waters from 05N
to 20N/23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong NE
to ESE trades with 8 to 11 ft seas exist. For the remainder of
the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally strong
NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, the two cold fronts will rapidly progress
eastward and merge across the central Atlantic through Fri.
Widespread strong to locally near gale-force SW winds will occur
ahead of the leading front, generally north of 28N and east of
70W, into Fri afternoon. West of the cold fronts, fresh to locally
strong W to NW winds are anticipated, north of 28N from offshore
of Florida to 70W through late tonight. Rough seas in SW swell and
then NW swell are expected north of 27N, with seas slowly
subsiding from west to east into this weekend. Elsewhere in the
central Atlantic, rough seas in mixed N and SE swell will prevail
through Fri morning, with a new mixed swell reinforcing rough seas
this weekend. Looking ahead, the next cold front is slated to
push off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with
increasing winds and building seas expected behind the front.
$$
Chan