000
AXNT20 KNHC 171604
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Feb 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough remains over west Africa. The ITCZ extends from
06N18W to 02S45W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
convection is active within 90 nm north of the ITCZ west of 30W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure centered over
the Carolina coast southwestward to the northern Gulf. This
pattern is maintaining gentle E breezes across the basin, except
for moderate SE off the coast of Texas and northern Tamaulipas.
Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin. No significant showers or
thunderstorms are noted at this time.
For the forecast, a high pressure ridge east of Florida and a
deepening low pressure system over the U.S. Midwest will tighten
the pressure gradient over the W and central Gulf later this week.
This will lead to moderate to fresh S return flow over those
waters Wed night through Fri night. Looking ahead, that low
pressure will pull a cold front over the NW Gulf on Sat afternoon,
followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds expected behind it Sat
night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the northwest
Caribbean south of central Cuba. This activity is ahead of a
mid/upper trough just north of the area, and along a surface
trough reaching from the central Bahamas through central Cuba. A
few showers are active between Honduras and Grand Cayman as well.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are active off Colombia. The
convergence of these winds is supporting a few showers off eastern
Panama. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere.
For the forecast, ridging north of the area will force fresh to
strong NE winds over the S central Caribbean for the next several
days. Fresh NE winds will develop over the Windward Passage today
through Wed evening. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will begin to
pulse over the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through
the rest of the forecast period, while trades elsewhere will
generally remain at moderate to fresh. Looking ahead, large N
swell should impact the tropical N Atlantic waters and the
Anegada/Mona Passages beginning on Thu.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N60W to 25N70W, then is stationary
across the central Bahamas. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms
are active within 240 nm east of the front, north of 27N.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are active from 22N to 24N
between 63W and 66W, and from 23N to 25N between 55W and 60W.
Fresh to strong winds are noted both ahead of and following the
front north of 29N between 50W and 65W. Moderate to fresh NW to N
winds follow the front elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 11 ft following
the front primarily in N to NE swell north of 29N, and 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere north of 20N and west of 50W. Farther east, a
dissipating stationary front reaches from 31N32W to 25N45W. Gentle
to moderate winds persist east of 50W, north of 20N, with 4 to 6
ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft dominate the
tropical Atlantic south of 20N. Of note, an area of Saharan dust
is evident this morning north of 05N and east of 30W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move slowly eastward and
dissipate through mid week. The fresh to strong winds north of 29N
associated with the front will pull north of our waters by this
evening. In the front's wake, large to very large NW to N swell
will occur with 12 ft or greater seas sliding eastward north of
29N through Wed night. 8 ft seas will progress equatorward
reaching 20N by Thu before diminishing on Fri. Winds will become
quiescent over forecast waters from Wed through the end of the
forecast period, as a high pressure ridge settles in along 27N.
$$
Christensen
AXNT20 KNHC 171604
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Feb 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough remains over west Africa. The ITCZ extends from
06N18W to 02S45W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate
convection is active within 90 nm north of the ITCZ west of 30W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure centered over
the Carolina coast southwestward to the northern Gulf. This
pattern is maintaining gentle E breezes across the basin, except
for moderate SE off the coast of Texas and northern Tamaulipas.
Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin. No significant showers or
thunderstorms are noted at this time.
For the forecast, a high pressure ridge east of Florida and a
deepening low pressure system over the U.S. Midwest will tighten
the pressure gradient over the W and central Gulf later this week.
This will lead to moderate to fresh S return flow over those
waters Wed night through Fri night. Looking ahead, that low
pressure will pull a cold front over the NW Gulf on Sat afternoon,
followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds expected behind it Sat
night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the northwest
Caribbean south of central Cuba. This activity is ahead of a
mid/upper trough just north of the area, and along a surface
trough reaching from the central Bahamas through central Cuba. A
few showers are active between Honduras and Grand Cayman as well.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are active off Colombia. The
convergence of these winds is supporting a few showers off eastern
Panama. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere.
For the forecast, ridging north of the area will force fresh to
strong NE winds over the S central Caribbean for the next several
days. Fresh NE winds will develop over the Windward Passage today
through Wed evening. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will begin to
pulse over the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through
the rest of the forecast period, while trades elsewhere will
generally remain at moderate to fresh. Looking ahead, large N
swell should impact the tropical N Atlantic waters and the
Anegada/Mona Passages beginning on Thu.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N60W to 25N70W, then is stationary
across the central Bahamas. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms
are active within 240 nm east of the front, north of 27N.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are active from 22N to 24N
between 63W and 66W, and from 23N to 25N between 55W and 60W.
Fresh to strong winds are noted both ahead of and following the
front north of 29N between 50W and 65W. Moderate to fresh NW to N
winds follow the front elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 11 ft following
the front primarily in N to NE swell north of 29N, and 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere north of 20N and west of 50W. Farther east, a
dissipating stationary front reaches from 31N32W to 25N45W. Gentle
to moderate winds persist east of 50W, north of 20N, with 4 to 6
ft seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft dominate the
tropical Atlantic south of 20N. Of note, an area of Saharan dust
is evident this morning north of 05N and east of 30W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move slowly eastward and
dissipate through mid week. The fresh to strong winds north of 29N
associated with the front will pull north of our waters by this
evening. In the front's wake, large to very large NW to N swell
will occur with 12 ft or greater seas sliding eastward north of
29N through Wed night. 8 ft seas will progress equatorward
reaching 20N by Thu before diminishing on Fri. Winds will become
quiescent over forecast waters from Wed through the end of the
forecast period, as a high pressure ridge settles in along 27N.
$$
Christensen