Plymouth State Weather Center

000 AXNT20 KNHC 210419 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Jun 21 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0419 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 14N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09.5N between 27.5W and 32W. An eastern Atlantic tropical is near 45W from 15N southward, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 08N to 11N between 40W and 44W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 16N southward, and moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07.5N to 10N between 52W and 58W. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted inland along the southern half of the wave over Colombia and eastern Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along 12N17W and extends southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N30W to 06.5N40.5W, then from 08N46W to 06N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 10N between 32W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough near the west coast of Florida, and a upper- level trough are supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the east-central Gulf. Convergent SE winds and a surface trough over the Bay of Campeche are producing similar conditions at the west- central Gulf near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are evident at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. A 1023 mb high near 26N62W is supporting gentle winds and slight seas at the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with slight seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, deep tropical moisture will continue to surge north-northwestward across the western Gulf through the weekend, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds and locally higher seas. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each afternoon and evening during the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds along with moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through the weekend before diminishing early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more details about the wave moving over the western-central part of the basin. A deep layer trough is over the central Caribbean and is supporting scattered showers across the same area including Hispaniola. Similar conditions are found over the NW part of the basin. A 1023 mb Bermuda High near 26N62W continues to sustain a robust trade- wind regime across much of the basin. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are evident at the south- central basin, while near-gale force winds are found off of Colombia. Gentle to moderate E winds with moderate seas are noted at the northwestern basin, north of 18N. Light to gentle winds and slight seas persist near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades over the central part of the basin through early next week. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia at night through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. A tropical wave currently E of the Lesser Antilles near 56W will move into the far eastern Caribbean early Sun, then across the rest of the eastern Caribbean through Sun night and across the central part of the basin through the middle of next week. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to accompany the wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about convection in the basin. A couple of surface troughs originated from the north-central Atlantic are generating scattered moderate convection in two places north of 28N, between 55W and 66W and between 42W and 51W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge stretches westward from a 1025 mb high near 27N35W to a 1023 mb Bermuda High near 26N62W. These features are supporting mostly gentle NE to SE winds with moderate seas north of 24N between 32W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the south from 08N to 24N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas dominate. Near the Canary Islands and southward, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found from 18.5N to 28N and E of 22W. For the remainder of the Atlantic basin, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak front or trough will pass to the southeast of Bermuda this weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. $$ KRV