000
AXNT20 KNHC 231033
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jan 23 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and continues southwestward to 03N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed south of 04N between 18W
and 28W and from 01N to 05.5N between 35W and 46W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front straddles the northern Gulf coastal waters, from the
western Florida Panhandle to the central Texas coast, and is
drifting slowly southward in recent hours. A weak pressure
gradient is noted across the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or
weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas.
For the forecast, the aforementioned front will meander across
the northern Gulf through Sat morning. Weak high pressure over the
eastern Gulf will be replaced by slightly stronger high pressure
that will build from the N on Sat. An arctic cold front is
expected to enter the NW Gulf on Sat, briefly stall there through
Sat night, then move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon
evening. Strong reinforcing high pressure behind the front is
expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of
the Gulf Sun and Sun night, and possible gale conditions over the
offshore waters of Tampico Sun night, then over the waters
offshore Veracruz on Mon. Expect areas of dense fog along and just
offshore the Texas coast through this morning.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends a
ridge into the SE Bahamas and just N of the basin. The associated
pressure gradient is forcing fresh to locally near gale- force
NE-E winds and rough seas in the south- central Caribbean.
Moderate to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are
present in the north- central and eastern Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to locally moderate winds and
slight to locally moderate seas are prevalent. A weak surface
trough is moving across the eastern Caribbean, producing isolated,
showers across the E and NE basin.
For the forecast, broad central Atlantic high pressure will
maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early
next week, while winds pulse strong to near gale force offshore of
Colombia at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic
will slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft
through early next week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean
late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras late Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough in the SW North Atlantic extends into the NW
Bahamas, where a 1017 mb low pressure center persist. Converging
low level winds coupled with divergence aloft is generating
scattered convection north of 26N between 65W and 77W. Moderate
NE winds and moderate seas are noted north of this trough and low.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of an extensive
subtropical ridge that is centered on a 1031 mb high near 37N41W,
and sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to
locally very rough seas to 12 ft in easterly swell, mainly south
of 28N and east of 60W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
and rough seas are found south of 25N and between 60W and 70W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front remains just N of
the northwestern waters this morning and extends inland across
Georgia. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered across the central
Atlantic. High pressure will shift E off the Middle Atlantic U.S.
coast Sat and Sun and force the front southward to along 30N
before lifting N of the area Sun night. Fresh to strong S to SW
winds will then develop over the NW forecast waters late Sun
through early Mon in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is
expected to move offshore northeastern Florida early Mon. The
front will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms
as it reaches from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of
Florida Mon evening, and from near 31N55W to the SE Bahamas and
eastern Cuba Tue evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue.
$$
Stripling
AXNT20 KNHC 231033
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jan 23 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and continues southwestward to 03N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed south of 04N between 18W
and 28W and from 01N to 05.5N between 35W and 46W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front straddles the northern Gulf coastal waters, from the
western Florida Panhandle to the central Texas coast, and is
drifting slowly southward in recent hours. A weak pressure
gradient is noted across the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or
weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas.
For the forecast, the aforementioned front will meander across
the northern Gulf through Sat morning. Weak high pressure over the
eastern Gulf will be replaced by slightly stronger high pressure
that will build from the N on Sat. An arctic cold front is
expected to enter the NW Gulf on Sat, briefly stall there through
Sat night, then move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon
evening. Strong reinforcing high pressure behind the front is
expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of
the Gulf Sun and Sun night, and possible gale conditions over the
offshore waters of Tampico Sun night, then over the waters
offshore Veracruz on Mon. Expect areas of dense fog along and just
offshore the Texas coast through this morning.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends a
ridge into the SE Bahamas and just N of the basin. The associated
pressure gradient is forcing fresh to locally near gale- force
NE-E winds and rough seas in the south- central Caribbean.
Moderate to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are
present in the north- central and eastern Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to locally moderate winds and
slight to locally moderate seas are prevalent. A weak surface
trough is moving across the eastern Caribbean, producing isolated,
showers across the E and NE basin.
For the forecast, broad central Atlantic high pressure will
maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early
next week, while winds pulse strong to near gale force offshore of
Colombia at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic
will slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft
through early next week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean
late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras late Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough in the SW North Atlantic extends into the NW
Bahamas, where a 1017 mb low pressure center persist. Converging
low level winds coupled with divergence aloft is generating
scattered convection north of 26N between 65W and 77W. Moderate
NE winds and moderate seas are noted north of this trough and low.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of an extensive
subtropical ridge that is centered on a 1031 mb high near 37N41W,
and sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to
locally very rough seas to 12 ft in easterly swell, mainly south
of 28N and east of 60W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
and rough seas are found south of 25N and between 60W and 70W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front remains just N of
the northwestern waters this morning and extends inland across
Georgia. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered across the central
Atlantic. High pressure will shift E off the Middle Atlantic U.S.
coast Sat and Sun and force the front southward to along 30N
before lifting N of the area Sun night. Fresh to strong S to SW
winds will then develop over the NW forecast waters late Sun
through early Mon in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is
expected to move offshore northeastern Florida early Mon. The
front will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms
as it reaches from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of
Florida Mon evening, and from near 31N55W to the SE Bahamas and
eastern Cuba Tue evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue.
$$
Stripling