000
AXNT20 KNHC 190306
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Sep 19 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 20.8N 52.7W at 18/2100
UTC or 610 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at
11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are
peaking around 18 ft just northeast of the center. Gabrielle
continues to experience strong westerly shear, keeping an area of
thunderstorms within 180 nm to the northeast of the partially
exposed center. The storm will continue on a NW trajectory over
the next 36 to 48 hours and intensify to hurricane strength as
Gabrielle moves into a more favorable environment.. Gabrielle will
then turn more northerly and pass well to the east of Bermuda by
late Sun in Mon.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Gabrielle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An African easterly wave along the African coast near 17W from
21N southward, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is along the coast of Senegal.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 22N southward,
moving west around 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 14N-16N between 32W-34W.
A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 74W from 22N
southward from southwest Haiti to northeast Colombia, moving west
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti, and inland over northeast Colombia.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W over coastal
Mauritania to 10N25W to 08N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N-10N between 20W-25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough extends southward from the central coast of
Louisiana to 25N92W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active
along another trough over the western coast of Yucatan, to the
north of a tropical wave moving into southern Mexico. Weak high
pressure north of the area is the main influence elsewhere,
supporting gentle to moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across
the basin.
For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered north of the
region will continue control the general weather pattern through
Fri night before shifting NE and weakening into next week.
Unsettled weather will continue over the far southeastern Gulf
through through Fri night as ample moisture and a nearby trough
remain in place. With Tropical Storm Gabrielle over the Atlantic
lifting northward through Sun, Atlantic ridging will build
westward along the northern Gulf early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.
An upper-level trough extends across the Atlantic from Bermuda to
Puerto Rico, then across the central Caribbean to northwest
Venezuela. This pattern is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms south of Puerto Rico. Divergent flow aloft west of
the upper trough is enhancing the convection over the Gulf of
Gonave and along with some late seabreeze related convection over
central Cuba. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active
across the Bay Islands of the Gulf of Honduras. Relatively weak
ridging north of the area is allowing only light to gentle
easterly breezes across the basin this evening, with 1 to 3 ft
seas.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades along with moderate
seas are expected through the forecast period.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm
Gabrielle and the tropical waves across the eastern Atlantic.
Away from Tropical Storm Gabrielle, there is a weak pressure
gradient across the basin, centered on 1027 mb high pressure
located north of the area 40N42W. A cold front south of the high
pressure reaches from the Azores to 31N45W. Outside of the main
impact area of Gabrielle, this pattern is supporting mostly
gentle to moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, Gabrielle will move to 22.0N 54.9W Fri
morning, 23.2N 56.8W Fri evening, 24.5N 58.4W Sat morning, 26.1N
59.9W Sat evening, 28.0N 61.0W Sun morning, and strengthen to a
hurricane near 29.9N 61.4W Sun evening. Gabrielle will change
little in intensity as it moves to 34.6N 58.6W by late Mon. In
its wake, central Atlantic high pressure will build westward generally
providing for light to gentle winds over the central and western
portions of the area, and for gentle to moderate winds over the
eastern portion.
$$
Christensen
AXNT20 KNHC 190306
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Sep 19 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 20.8N 52.7W at 18/2100
UTC or 610 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at
11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are
peaking around 18 ft just northeast of the center. Gabrielle
continues to experience strong westerly shear, keeping an area of
thunderstorms within 180 nm to the northeast of the partially
exposed center. The storm will continue on a NW trajectory over
the next 36 to 48 hours and intensify to hurricane strength as
Gabrielle moves into a more favorable environment.. Gabrielle will
then turn more northerly and pass well to the east of Bermuda by
late Sun in Mon.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Gabrielle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An African easterly wave along the African coast near 17W from
21N southward, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is along the coast of Senegal.
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 22N southward,
moving west around 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 14N-16N between 32W-34W.
A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 74W from 22N
southward from southwest Haiti to northeast Colombia, moving west
at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti, and inland over northeast Colombia.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W over coastal
Mauritania to 10N25W to 08N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N-10N between 20W-25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough extends southward from the central coast of
Louisiana to 25N92W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active
along another trough over the western coast of Yucatan, to the
north of a tropical wave moving into southern Mexico. Weak high
pressure north of the area is the main influence elsewhere,
supporting gentle to moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across
the basin.
For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered north of the
region will continue control the general weather pattern through
Fri night before shifting NE and weakening into next week.
Unsettled weather will continue over the far southeastern Gulf
through through Fri night as ample moisture and a nearby trough
remain in place. With Tropical Storm Gabrielle over the Atlantic
lifting northward through Sun, Atlantic ridging will build
westward along the northern Gulf early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.
An upper-level trough extends across the Atlantic from Bermuda to
Puerto Rico, then across the central Caribbean to northwest
Venezuela. This pattern is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms south of Puerto Rico. Divergent flow aloft west of
the upper trough is enhancing the convection over the Gulf of
Gonave and along with some late seabreeze related convection over
central Cuba. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active
across the Bay Islands of the Gulf of Honduras. Relatively weak
ridging north of the area is allowing only light to gentle
easterly breezes across the basin this evening, with 1 to 3 ft
seas.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades along with moderate
seas are expected through the forecast period.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm
Gabrielle and the tropical waves across the eastern Atlantic.
Away from Tropical Storm Gabrielle, there is a weak pressure
gradient across the basin, centered on 1027 mb high pressure
located north of the area 40N42W. A cold front south of the high
pressure reaches from the Azores to 31N45W. Outside of the main
impact area of Gabrielle, this pattern is supporting mostly
gentle to moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, Gabrielle will move to 22.0N 54.9W Fri
morning, 23.2N 56.8W Fri evening, 24.5N 58.4W Sat morning, 26.1N
59.9W Sat evening, 28.0N 61.0W Sun morning, and strengthen to a
hurricane near 29.9N 61.4W Sun evening. Gabrielle will change
little in intensity as it moves to 34.6N 58.6W by late Mon. In
its wake, central Atlantic high pressure will build westward generally
providing for light to gentle winds over the central and western
portions of the area, and for gentle to moderate winds over the
eastern portion.
$$
Christensen