000
AXNT20 KNHC 212104
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning:
The pressure gradient between 1028 mb high pressure over the
central Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near
gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features
will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the
high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage flow at night
will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force tonight through Thu
morning. Rough seas are forecast with these winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends
southwestward to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to
00N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N to 05N between 15W and 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough is over the far SW Gulf, with high pressure
dominating the remainder of the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail.
For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United
States supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate
seas across most of the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida. These marine conditions will persist through this
evening. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Sat
followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas.
Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may bring
near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night, then
near Veracruz on Mon.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the
coast of Colombia.
Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail over the
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft
prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, gale force NE winds will pulse tonight through
early Thu morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Thu night
through Fri early morning winds will pulse to near gale force in
the same area. Strong high pressure over the SE of the United
States will continue to promote fresh to locally strong NE winds
and moderate seas across the NW Caribbean through this evening.
These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into
northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall. A
surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across
the Leeward Islands this evening, and over Puerto Rico on Thu,
likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase
the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the islands and surrounding waters.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda
to over central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-10 ft
prevail W of the front. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion
waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1028 mb high
centered near 32N44W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft,
are in the vicinity of the high. Fresh to strong winds, and seas
of 8-12 ft, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
east of 65W through Thu. A stationary front extends from 31N59W to
western Cuba. This front will lift N and gradually dissipate
through Thu. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will
continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of
the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through this evening. The
next cold front will likely move offshore NE FL Mon. Ahead of the
front, fresh to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, W of
75W.
$$
AL
AXNT20 KNHC 212104
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning:
The pressure gradient between 1028 mb high pressure over the
central Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near
gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features
will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the
high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage flow at night
will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force tonight through Thu
morning. Rough seas are forecast with these winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends
southwestward to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to
00N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N to 05N between 15W and 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough is over the far SW Gulf, with high pressure
dominating the remainder of the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail.
For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United
States supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate
seas across most of the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida. These marine conditions will persist through this
evening. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Sat
followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas.
Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may bring
near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night, then
near Veracruz on Mon.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the
coast of Colombia.
Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail over the
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft
prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, gale force NE winds will pulse tonight through
early Thu morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Thu night
through Fri early morning winds will pulse to near gale force in
the same area. Strong high pressure over the SE of the United
States will continue to promote fresh to locally strong NE winds
and moderate seas across the NW Caribbean through this evening.
These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into
northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall. A
surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across
the Leeward Islands this evening, and over Puerto Rico on Thu,
likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase
the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the islands and surrounding waters.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda
to over central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-10 ft
prevail W of the front. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion
waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1028 mb high
centered near 32N44W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft,
are in the vicinity of the high. Fresh to strong winds, and seas
of 8-12 ft, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
east of 65W through Thu. A stationary front extends from 31N59W to
western Cuba. This front will lift N and gradually dissipate
through Thu. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will
continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of
the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through this evening. The
next cold front will likely move offshore NE FL Mon. Ahead of the
front, fresh to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, W of
75W.
$$
AL