000
AXNT20 KNHC 180613
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jan 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 12000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A cold front extending southwestward from the Florida Big Bend to
just south of Tampico, Mexico, will continue to move southeastward
and out of the Gulf by Sun night. Strong to near gale-force NW to
N winds are found behind the front. A corridor of gales to strong-
gale force winds will develop tonight from near Tampico eastward
to the central Gulf, then spread southeastward into the western
Bay Campeche near Veracruz on Sunday morning. Seas under the
strongest winds will rise to between 12 and 15 ft. Conditions are
going to gradually improve starting late Sunday afternoon at the
west-central Gulf near Tampico, and then near Veracruz by late
Sunday night through Monday morning.
Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.
Significant Heavy Rainfall at Belize, Honduras and Guatemala:
Interaction between a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold
front along with abundant tropical moisture will increase the
potential for heavy rainfall across Belize and Honduras from
Sunday through Thursday, especially from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Heaviest rainfall is forecast to be near northern
Honduras and southeastern Belize. This will greatly increase the
chance of flashing and urban flooding, and mudslides in hilly
terrains. Please consult products from your local meteorological
services for additional information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near
Conakry, then extends southwestward to 03N24W. An ITCZ continues
westward from 03N24W across 00N30W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is occurring south of the monsoon
trough from 01N to 05N between 10W and 21W. Widely scattered
showers are occurring near and up to 200 nm north of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warnings.
A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area
to near Poza Rica, Mexico. Scattered showers are seen up to 100 nm
southeast, and up to 150 nm northwest of this boundary. Recent
scatterometer satellite data and local marine observations show
fresh to strong NE winds along with 7 to 10 ft seas north of the
front. South of the front, surface ridging is supporting light to
gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft, except
moderate to fresh NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas at the eastern Bay
of Campeche.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move
southeastward and out of the Gulf by Sun night. Outside the Gale
Warning area mentioned in the Special Features section, strong to
near gale-force northerly winds will follow the front. Conditions
will improve Mon as high pressure builds southward into the
region. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the southeast
United States should cause strengthening NE to E winds over most
of the Gulf on Tue and Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras.
A surface trough accompanied by surging tropical moisture is
generating scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at
the far west-central and northwestern basin, including waters near
the Cayman Islands. Otherwise, a robust trade-wind pattern
continues across much of the basin. Fresh to strong with locally
near-gale ENE winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are present at the
south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft
seas are noted at the north-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE
to E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident at the eastern and
part of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin, including
the Windward Passage.
For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central
Caribbean this weekend, before diminishing some next week as a
cold front enters the northwestern basin. Offshore Colombia, the
trade winds will pulse to near-gale force each night through
early next week. The aforementioned cold front will move through
the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then stall from eastern Cuba to the
coast of Honduras Mon night, before gradually dissipating. This
will lead to thunderstorms and likely heavy rainfall over Honduras
and adjacent waters early next week, with fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas behind the front through Tue night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Two surface troughs are generating widely scattered showers from
24N to 29N between 64W and the northwest/central Bahamas. Well
farther southeast, another surface trough embedded within the
trades is causing scattered moderate convection from 03N to 06N
between 38W and 47W. A pronounced upper-leve low near 20N41W is
triggering widely scattered moderate convection from 12N to 19N
between 40W and 48W. Divergent winds to it southeast are enhancing
scattered moderate convection from 10N to 14N between 27W and 34W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.
A narrow ridge extending southwestward from a 1036 mb Azores High
to near central Florida is supporting gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate easterly swell north of
24N and west of 60W. To the south from 20N to 24N and west of 60W,
moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted.
Further east, fresh to strong ENE to ESE winds and seas at 8 to 12
ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and 60W. For the tropical
Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles,
moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and 8 to 10
ft seas are found. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of
35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in
mixed large swells prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Azores High will
sustain fresh trades east of 65W through Thu. A cold front will
emerge off the southeast United States coast Sun morning,
accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds north of 27N.
Winds will diminish Mon as the pressure gradient in the region
diminishes. The front will continue to weaken and stall from
Bermuda through the Bahamas on Tue. However, with high pressure
building over the southeast United States, an increasing pressure
gradient west of the frontal boundary will enhance NW winds to
between fresh and strong in the vicinity of the Bahamas and
Florida Straits into the middle of next week.
$$
Chan
AXNT20 KNHC 180613
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jan 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 12000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A cold front extending southwestward from the Florida Big Bend to
just south of Tampico, Mexico, will continue to move southeastward
and out of the Gulf by Sun night. Strong to near gale-force NW to
N winds are found behind the front. A corridor of gales to strong-
gale force winds will develop tonight from near Tampico eastward
to the central Gulf, then spread southeastward into the western
Bay Campeche near Veracruz on Sunday morning. Seas under the
strongest winds will rise to between 12 and 15 ft. Conditions are
going to gradually improve starting late Sunday afternoon at the
west-central Gulf near Tampico, and then near Veracruz by late
Sunday night through Monday morning.
Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.
Significant Heavy Rainfall at Belize, Honduras and Guatemala:
Interaction between a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold
front along with abundant tropical moisture will increase the
potential for heavy rainfall across Belize and Honduras from
Sunday through Thursday, especially from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Heaviest rainfall is forecast to be near northern
Honduras and southeastern Belize. This will greatly increase the
chance of flashing and urban flooding, and mudslides in hilly
terrains. Please consult products from your local meteorological
services for additional information.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near
Conakry, then extends southwestward to 03N24W. An ITCZ continues
westward from 03N24W across 00N30W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is occurring south of the monsoon
trough from 01N to 05N between 10W and 21W. Widely scattered
showers are occurring near and up to 200 nm north of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warnings.
A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area
to near Poza Rica, Mexico. Scattered showers are seen up to 100 nm
southeast, and up to 150 nm northwest of this boundary. Recent
scatterometer satellite data and local marine observations show
fresh to strong NE winds along with 7 to 10 ft seas north of the
front. South of the front, surface ridging is supporting light to
gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft, except
moderate to fresh NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas at the eastern Bay
of Campeche.
For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move
southeastward and out of the Gulf by Sun night. Outside the Gale
Warning area mentioned in the Special Features section, strong to
near gale-force northerly winds will follow the front. Conditions
will improve Mon as high pressure builds southward into the
region. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the southeast
United States should cause strengthening NE to E winds over most
of the Gulf on Tue and Wed.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras.
A surface trough accompanied by surging tropical moisture is
generating scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at
the far west-central and northwestern basin, including waters near
the Cayman Islands. Otherwise, a robust trade-wind pattern
continues across much of the basin. Fresh to strong with locally
near-gale ENE winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are present at the
south-central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft
seas are noted at the north-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE
to E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are evident at the eastern and
part of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds
and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin, including
the Windward Passage.
For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central
Caribbean this weekend, before diminishing some next week as a
cold front enters the northwestern basin. Offshore Colombia, the
trade winds will pulse to near-gale force each night through
early next week. The aforementioned cold front will move through
the Yucatan Channel Sun night, then stall from eastern Cuba to the
coast of Honduras Mon night, before gradually dissipating. This
will lead to thunderstorms and likely heavy rainfall over Honduras
and adjacent waters early next week, with fresh to strong NE
winds and rough seas behind the front through Tue night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Two surface troughs are generating widely scattered showers from
24N to 29N between 64W and the northwest/central Bahamas. Well
farther southeast, another surface trough embedded within the
trades is causing scattered moderate convection from 03N to 06N
between 38W and 47W. A pronounced upper-leve low near 20N41W is
triggering widely scattered moderate convection from 12N to 19N
between 40W and 48W. Divergent winds to it southeast are enhancing
scattered moderate convection from 10N to 14N between 27W and 34W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.
A narrow ridge extending southwestward from a 1036 mb Azores High
to near central Florida is supporting gentle to moderate SE to S
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate easterly swell north of
24N and west of 60W. To the south from 20N to 24N and west of 60W,
moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted.
Further east, fresh to strong ENE to ESE winds and seas at 8 to 12
ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and 60W. For the tropical
Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles,
moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and 8 to 10
ft seas are found. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of
35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in
mixed large swells prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Azores High will
sustain fresh trades east of 65W through Thu. A cold front will
emerge off the southeast United States coast Sun morning,
accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds north of 27N.
Winds will diminish Mon as the pressure gradient in the region
diminishes. The front will continue to weaken and stall from
Bermuda through the Bahamas on Tue. However, with high pressure
building over the southeast United States, an increasing pressure
gradient west of the frontal boundary will enhance NW winds to
between fresh and strong in the vicinity of the Bahamas and
Florida Straits into the middle of next week.
$$
Chan