000
AXNT20 KNHC 151756
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jan 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N72W to the
northern Bahamas, with fresh to strong winds on either side N of
27N and W of 66W. A reinforcing cold front from 31N77W to central
Florida will merge with the leading front. The merged front will
reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and
extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall
and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the
front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force tonight
with seas of up to 15 ft east of the front and N of 29N. Gales
should subside by tomorrow morning south of 31N.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front from south Florida to
the Bay of Campeche will shift southeast of the area by this
evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevail in the wake
of the front. Gale warnings are in place within 60 NM of the
Florida panhandle based upon frequent gusts to gale force. Seas in
these coastal waters are to 8 ft. Conditions will improve from NW
to SE across the Gulf through tonight.
Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Zone Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAAOFFNT4.shtml .
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
There is no monsoon trough over the Atlantic today. The ITCZ
begins along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to a 1010 mb
low near 00N42W. Isolated moderate convection is noted south of
05N and east of 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for
the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special
Features section for more details.
As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from South Florida near 26N82W
to the Bay of Campeche. Winds are NW strong to near gale with seas
8-12 ft in the SE half of the Gulf and fresh to strong N with seas
5-10 ft in the NW half of the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring within 30 NM of the front, primarily in the Florida
Straits.
For the forecast, the cold front will shift southeast of the area
by this evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevail in
the wake of the front. Conditions will improve from NW to SE
through tonight. A reinforcing front and surge of fresh to strong
northerly winds may impact the basin this weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A trough extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras and a
cold front is just now reaching the Yucatan Channel. Except for
some fresh E trades just north of Colombia and Venezuela, winds
across the Caribbean are moderate or weaker. Seas across the
Caribbean are 2-6 ft. Isolated moderate convection is observed
from 14N-18N between 74W-79W. Scattered showers are also located
within 30 NM of the trough and the front.
For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong offshore of
NW Colombia Fri night through the weekend and into early next
week. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean later today,
stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The
pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in
the upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing
winds and building seas across the basin. A reinforcing front and
surge of winds will arrive in the NW Caribbean early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.
A cold front extends from 31N72W to the northern Bahamas, with
fresh to strong winds on either side N of 27N and W of 66W. A
reinforcing cold front also extends from 31N77W to central
Florida. From within 120 NM east of the leading cold front
westward to the US coast, winds are fresh to strong. Seas are 6-9
ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 NM of the
leading cold front. Farther east, a surface trough extends from
19N41W to 21N38W, driven by a co-located, upper-level low. While
winds and seas with it are not noteworthy, scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 19N-26N between 30W-40W. Elsewhere,
no other significant features are noted. However, the NE to E
trades are fresh to strong east of 40W from 15N-25N. Seas is the
area are 5-10 ft. Remainder of waters has winds moderate or weaker
and seas 5-8 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the two aforementioned cold fronts
will merge and reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri
morning, and extend from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it
will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will
accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale
force tonight east of the front and N of 29N. Another cold front
may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.
$$
Landsea/Levine
AXNT20 KNHC 151756
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jan 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N72W to the
northern Bahamas, with fresh to strong winds on either side N of
27N and W of 66W. A reinforcing cold front from 31N77W to central
Florida will merge with the leading front. The merged front will
reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and
extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall
and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the
front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force tonight
with seas of up to 15 ft east of the front and N of 29N. Gales
should subside by tomorrow morning south of 31N.
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front from south Florida to
the Bay of Campeche will shift southeast of the area by this
evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevail in the wake
of the front. Gale warnings are in place within 60 NM of the
Florida panhandle based upon frequent gusts to gale force. Seas in
these coastal waters are to 8 ft. Conditions will improve from NW
to SE across the Gulf through tonight.
Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Zone Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAAOFFNT4.shtml .
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
There is no monsoon trough over the Atlantic today. The ITCZ
begins along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to a 1010 mb
low near 00N42W. Isolated moderate convection is noted south of
05N and east of 20W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for
the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special
Features section for more details.
As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from South Florida near 26N82W
to the Bay of Campeche. Winds are NW strong to near gale with seas
8-12 ft in the SE half of the Gulf and fresh to strong N with seas
5-10 ft in the NW half of the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring within 30 NM of the front, primarily in the Florida
Straits.
For the forecast, the cold front will shift southeast of the area
by this evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevail in
the wake of the front. Conditions will improve from NW to SE
through tonight. A reinforcing front and surge of fresh to strong
northerly winds may impact the basin this weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A trough extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras and a
cold front is just now reaching the Yucatan Channel. Except for
some fresh E trades just north of Colombia and Venezuela, winds
across the Caribbean are moderate or weaker. Seas across the
Caribbean are 2-6 ft. Isolated moderate convection is observed
from 14N-18N between 74W-79W. Scattered showers are also located
within 30 NM of the trough and the front.
For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong offshore of
NW Colombia Fri night through the weekend and into early next
week. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean later today,
stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The
pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in
the upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing
winds and building seas across the basin. A reinforcing front and
surge of winds will arrive in the NW Caribbean early next week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.
A cold front extends from 31N72W to the northern Bahamas, with
fresh to strong winds on either side N of 27N and W of 66W. A
reinforcing cold front also extends from 31N77W to central
Florida. From within 120 NM east of the leading cold front
westward to the US coast, winds are fresh to strong. Seas are 6-9
ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 NM of the
leading cold front. Farther east, a surface trough extends from
19N41W to 21N38W, driven by a co-located, upper-level low. While
winds and seas with it are not noteworthy, scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 19N-26N between 30W-40W. Elsewhere,
no other significant features are noted. However, the NE to E
trades are fresh to strong east of 40W from 15N-25N. Seas is the
area are 5-10 ft. Remainder of waters has winds moderate or weaker
and seas 5-8 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the two aforementioned cold fronts
will merge and reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri
morning, and extend from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it
will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will
accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale
force tonight east of the front and N of 29N. Another cold front
may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.
$$
Landsea/Levine