234 <br />AXNT20 KNHC 091040<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1215 UTC Fri May 9 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />1035 UTC.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and<br />extends southwestward to 05N21W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N21W to<br />00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 05N and<br />west of 25W.<br /><br />...GULF OF AMERICA...<br /><br />A cold front is moving across the NW Gulf of America, extending<br />from SW Louisiana to NE Tamaulipas. A strong squall is noted ahead<br />of the front, producing wind gusts to gale force, frequent<br />lightning strikes and higher seas. Moderate to fresh northerly<br />winds and moderate seas are found behind the front. Generally dry<br />conditions are evident in the remainder of the basin. Moderate to<br />fresh SE winds and slight to moderate seas are present south of<br />26N and east of 94W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight<br />to moderate seas prevail.<br /><br />For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move <br />eastward today, with a low developing along the front near SE <br />Louisiana. The low will meander over the NE Gulf through Sun while<br />the front will move eastward across the western half of the <br />basin. By Mon, the low is forecast to move northward and the front<br />will continue to move across the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong <br />northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the <br />wake of the front through Sat night. Seas to 9 ft are expected Fri<br />night into Sat morning in the SW Gulf. Smoke from agricultural <br />fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in parts <br />of the Gulf region. <br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA... <br /><br />High pressure north of the Caribbean supports fresh to strong<br />easterly winds in the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 3-6 ft.<br />Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are present in the central Caribbean,<br />including the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are also 3-6<br />ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate<br />seas are prevalent.<br /><br />For the forecast, high pressure north of the area supports <br />pulsing fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds in the <br />Gulf of Honduras at night through Sat night. Moderate to locally <br />fresh trades and slight to moderate seas are forecast over the <br />remainder of the basin through today, including the waters E of <br />the Lesser Antilles. Expect increasing winds and building moderate<br />to rough seas, mainly over the south-central Caribbean, including<br />off Colombia this upcoming weekend into early next week as the <br />Atlantic high pressure builds westward. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A surface trough extends north to south along a weak 1013 mb low <br />pressure near 26N67W. Another surface trough is noted north of the<br />Leeward Islands along 61W. The pressure gradient between a strong<br />ridge to the north and the aforementioned troughs sustain <br />moderate to fresh SE-E winds and moderate to rough seas north of <br />20N and between 45W and 65W. A weak ridge dominates the remainder <br />of the SW North Atlantic waters, sustaining moderate or weaker <br />winds and moderate seas.<br /><br />An extratropical cyclone near 32N26W is producing a large area of<br />fresh to strong winds, especially north of 26N and between 20W and<br />38W. Seas in these waters are 10-16 ft, with the highest seas<br />occurring near 30N26W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and<br />moderate seas prevail.<br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, low pres centered between Bermuda <br />and Hispaniola supports moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate to<br />rough seas over much of the waters E of 65W. These marine <br />conditions will start to gradually diminish later today. The low <br />pressure will meander near 27N between 65W and 70W today, and open<br />up into a trough by Sat morning. Then, the Atlantic high pressure<br />will build westward toward the Bahamas this upcoming weekend. <br /><br />$$<br />Delgado