000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210838
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Nov 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds are
developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high pressure builds
over central Mexico in the wake of a strong cold front moving
into Central America. Strong gales will be possible at times
through late tonight. Rough seas will occur across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through this weekend, with very rough seas likely in
the area of strongest wind. Seas will peak around 17 ft today.
Gale force winds will end Sat morning with strong winds ending
by early Sun morning. Seas will fall below 12 ft Fri afternoon
and below 8 ft by Sat night.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N93W to a 1011 mb low near
15N101W to a 1009 mb low near 09N125W to 09N127W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 08N to 11N between 119W and 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale event.

A 1023 mb high is centered near 31N122W and ridging extends
across the Baja California offshore waters. This pattern
supports gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds across the
Baja California offshore waters and points farther south off the
coast of southwestern Mexico. A residual N to NW swell is
promoting seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 19N and west of 114.5W.
Elsewhere, the tight pressure gradient between the ridge and a
trough in northwestern Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW
winds in the Gulf of California, including the waters
surrounding Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in this region.

For the forecast, gale force winds will occur across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec into Sat morning. Strong gales will be possible at
times through late tonight. Rough seas will occur across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through this weekend, with very rough seas
likely in the area of strongest wind. These gales and rough seas
will reach beyond 300 NM downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
into early Sat. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NW winds will
continue to pulse in the Gulf of California into early Fri.
Rough seas off the coast of Baja California will subside this
morning. Another long-period NW swell will reintroduce rough
seas offshore of Baja California Norte later today before seas
subside on Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are occurring offshore of
Costa Rica southeastward through the coastal waters of Colombia,
where seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed. Elsewhere, gentle to
locally moderate W to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail
across the remainder of the Central and South American offshore
waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and very rough
seas associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will
impact the far western Guatemala offshore waters this morning
through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds will continue in
the offshore waters of Costa Rica through Colombia through Fri.
Fresh to strong E to NE winds will then pulse in the Gulf of
Papagayo Fri into Sun. Otherwise, moderate SE to SW winds will
prevail across the offshore waters through this weekend. Looking
ahead, rough seas in SW swell will reach the waters off the
coast of Ecuador by early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1023 mb high is centered near 31N122W and ridging extends
across the waters north of the monsoon trough. A tightening
pressure gradient between the ridge and a cold front approaching
30N140W is supporting fresh to locally strong SW winds north of
27N and west of 128W. A new N swell is leading to seas of 8 to
11 ft in this region. Farther south, moderate E to NE winds are
occurring along the southern periphery of the ridge and west of
110W, with locally fresh NE winds occurring near a 1009 mb low
near 09N125W. Multiple sets of NW swell are promoting seas of 7
to 9 ft north of 15N, and pockets of 7 to 8 ft seas are noted
along the monsoon trough, in a combination of NW and SW swell,
along with shorter-period NE seas due to trade wind flow. South
of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist and shift southward
across the waters through this weekend. The cold front
approaching 30N140W will lead to fresh to locally strong SW winds
north of 27N and west of 126W into Fri morning before winds
diminish. Rough seas along the monsoon trough and off the coast
of Baja California will slowly subside through Fri. Another long-
period NW swell will reintroduce rough seas north of 25N through
Sat. Looking ahead, a complex wave pattern will develop by Sun
over the tropical eastern Pacific from 05N to 10N between 105W
and 115W in a mix of NW and SW swell, along with a component of
shorter period NE swell generated by the Tehuantepec gap wind
event. SW swell to 8 ft will overtake the region south of 10N
and east of 115W Mon and Tue.

$$
ADAMS