AXPZ20 KNHC 081546

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 08 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1530 UTC.


Pacific Significant Seas: Strong high pressure remains just
north of the discussion waters, and is maintaining a large area
of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the region north of 10N
and west of 115W. Significant wave heights within this area of
winds are 11-13 ft, with the highest of the wave heights located
from 15N to 23N W of 133W. Seas W of 130W are dominated by steep
NE waves at 7-9 seconds mixed with NW swell of 11-15 seconds. E
of 130W, NW swell at 11-13 seconds dominates. East of 125W, these
high seas will gradually subside tonight through Wed to below 12
ft by Wed morning. West of 125W, seas will peak at 12-15 ft
tonight, then diminish very slowly below 12 ft by Thu morning, as
the strong winds shift W of 140W. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for more information.


A surface trough extends from just inland NW Colombia near
10N75W to 03N84W to 03N84W and to 02N100W to 03N110W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N110W to 06N121W to 04N132W and to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within
120 nm S of trough between 77W-80W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 114W-118W, also within
120 nm N of the ITCZ between 117W-119W and within 60 nm N of the
ITCZ between 119W-122W.


Strong high pressure dominates the Pacific waters, producing
fresh to strong NNW winds across the Gulf of California, where
seas are 5-8 ft across central portions and 6-9 ft southern
portions. Fresh to strong NE gap winds are spilling into the
Pacific waters offshore of Todos Santos, Mexico. Fresh N to NE
gap winds are also spilling into the nearshore Pacific waters of
central Baja. Large NW swell continues to move southeastward
through the Baja offshore waters, with 8-11 ft seas reaching as
far south as Socorro Island. Please see the Special Features
section above for more details on this significant swell.
Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere along the
coast of Mexico north of 19N, with 6-9 ft seas, diminishing to
gentle speeds south of 19N, where seas are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure dominating the Baja
California offshore waters will maintain fresh N to NE winds and
6-10 ft seas through tonight, with winds and seas then
diminishing through Thu morning. Strong NNW winds in the central
and southern Gulf of California will persist through Thu morning
before diminishing modestly through Fri. Peak seas of 8-9 ft
will persist across the southern Gulf through Wed morning.
Looking ahead, fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds
will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting early Thu,
then increase to gale-force starting Fri night, and possibly
increasing to storm-force on Sat morning.


Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo
region, extending offshore to 90W. In this area, seas of 6-8 ft
prevail. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are in the Gulf
of Panama, extending southward to 05N, where seas are 4-7 ft.
Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with 4-6
ft seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf
of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through
Sat. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong tonight, then
remain moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama into Sat.


Strong 1032 mb high pressure remains centered just N of the area
near 35N133W. The associated broad ridge is maintaining a large
area of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the waters N of
about 08N and W of 115W. Large NE wind generated seas are
combining with NW swell moving through the regional waters to
produce a significant area of seas 12 ft and greater. Please see
the Special Features section for information concerning these
significant seas.

East of 110W, seas are 6-9 ft in mixed NW and S swell.
Elsewhere, moderate wind and seas are evident. A weak short wave
trough in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere continues
to support scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north
of the ITCZ between 115W-130W. This activity remains about
stationary for the time being, but cirrus blow off clouds from
the tops of the convection is streaming E from 05N to 14N and
between 113W-130W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will
dominate the waters west of 115W through tonight, then begin to
drift NE and gradually weaken through Thu. Strong NE trade winds
and large seas to 12 ft and greater will prevail across the area
west of 120W through tonight before diminishing from E to W
through Thu. A cold front is expected to enter the NW waters Thu
afternoon, accompanied by large NW swell. High pressure behind
the front will act to produce fresh to strong NE to E winds to
the west of 130W Thu night through Fri. The weakening front will
approach the Baja offshore waters Sat producing another period of
strong N to NE winds and large seas over the weekend.