000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251620
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 20.9N 121.1W at 1500 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with
gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 28 ft. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 20.5N to 23N between
119W and 121W, while scattered moderate convection extends
elsewhere from 20N to 24N between 115W and 122W. This current west-
northwest motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days, while Iselle gradually weakens due to continued westerly
upper level wind shear. Iselle is forecast to become a post-
tropical remnant low by early Friday. S-SW swell generated by
Iselle is affecting the offshore waters and west coast of the
Baja California Peninsula, and will continue through Wed morning
before subsiding quickly. These swells are likely to cause large
and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Tropical Storm Julio is centered near 18.0N 118.9W at 1500 UTC,
moving north-northeast at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 15 ft within 90 nm
across the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is noted from 15N to 17.5N between 118.5W and 121W, while
scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends elsewhere
from 10N to 17N between 117W and 124W. Julio has accelerated its
forward motion this morning, and combined with northwesterly
upper level wind shear, the center has become exposed to the
north of the area of strong convection. Julio is expected to move
quickly northward, continue to weaken, and gradually become
absorbed within the outer eastern circulation of Iselle this
evening through tonight.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details on these two systems.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 107W, from 07N to 19N, moving westward
at 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 100W and 111W.
The tropical wave previously along 110W is gradually merging with
the wave now along 107W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N109W, then resumes
SW of Julio from 15N122W to low pres near 10N138W 1007 mb to
beyond 09.5N140W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves, T.S. Julio and T.S. Iselle described above,
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to
08.5N E of 90W, and from 02N to 13N between 90W and 100W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 04N to 12N between 121W and 143W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for more information
about T.S. Iselle.
Tropical Storm Iselle is moving away from the Mexican offshore
waters, located near 20.9N 121.1W at 8 AM PDT, moving west-northwest
at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt,
and the minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The proximity of
Iselle continues to disrupt the ridge to its north, and into the
Baja offshore waters. This is maintaining light to gentle
northerly winds across the Baja California waters and similar N
to NE winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 7 to
11 ft in S-SW swell from Iselle across the Baja Sur waters, and 5
to 7 ft across the Baja Norte waters. Seas are 4 to 5 ft
elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters W
of Puerto Angel. Winds and seas are gradually diminishing across
the Revillagigedo Islands and area waters as Iselle gradually
moves away from that area, as seas remain around 12 ft. Gentle to
moderate NW to W gap winds prevail across central and southern
portions of the Gulf of California. A large cluster of strong
thunderstorms covers much of the area across the entrance to the
Gulf to Las Tres Marias, and are supported by an upper level low
pressure system. This activity is shifting northward. Otherwise,
fresh to strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N with 6 to 8 ft seas.
For the forecast, Iselle will continue to move west-northwestward
and away from the area waters, while gradually weakening,
reaching near 21.4N 122.5W this evening, and 22.0N 124.1W Wed
morning. Large S-SW swell from Iselle will continue to move
through the Baja waters today through early Wed before quickly
subsiding. Elsewhere, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to
pulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region during the
overnight and early morning hours through the upcoming weekend,
with seas occasionally building to 8-9 ft. Looking ahead, another
tropical wave and developing low pressure area will follow a
similar trajectory as Iselle, Thu through the weekend, and impact
the outer offshore waters near the Revillagigedo Islands within
increasing winds and seas.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo
region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.
Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are S of 03N and between
the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate or weaker winds
are found elsewhere, with slight to moderate seas in SW swell.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms continue
across the waters from 02.5N to 08.5N between Colombia and 90W,
including the entrance to the Gulf of Panama, and nearshore
waters of western Panama, and Cost Rica.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds will
pulse to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each night
through Sat night building seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to
fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the
outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through the
end of the week. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally
fresh S winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue
night and then prevail through the remainder forecast period.
Otherwise, cross- equatorial SW swell will move into the area
waters Thu night through Fri.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section for more information about
T.S. Iselle and T.S. Julio.
High pressure of 1020 mb located near 35N130W extends a broad
ridge south and southeastward to approximately 118W, and drapes
across Iselle. The pressure gradient between these features and
low pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 25N and W of
130W per recent satellite scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh
SW to W winds are south of the monsoon W of 131W while moderate
to fresh E winds accompany the tropical wave near 107W. South of
the monsoon trough and between 115W and 125W, fresh S-SW winds
are feeding into Julio and the eastern side of Iselle.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julio will move northward,
weaken and gradually become absorbed in the larger circulation of
Iselle, as Iselle shifts west-northwestward between 20N and 25N,
before dissipating Fri. A tropical wave located near 107W, well
to the SW of SW Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form by the end of the week while it
moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore
of Mexico. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone
formation within the next two days and high chance of development
through 7 days.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore
of Central America late this week or this weekend. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. This system has a low
chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next two days
and a medium chance of development through 7 days.
$$
Stripling
AXPZ20 KNHC 251620
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 20.9N 121.1W at 1500 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with
gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 28 ft. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 20.5N to 23N between
119W and 121W, while scattered moderate convection extends
elsewhere from 20N to 24N between 115W and 122W. This current west-
northwest motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days, while Iselle gradually weakens due to continued westerly
upper level wind shear. Iselle is forecast to become a post-
tropical remnant low by early Friday. S-SW swell generated by
Iselle is affecting the offshore waters and west coast of the
Baja California Peninsula, and will continue through Wed morning
before subsiding quickly. These swells are likely to cause large
and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Tropical Storm Julio is centered near 18.0N 118.9W at 1500 UTC,
moving north-northeast at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 15 ft within 90 nm
across the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is noted from 15N to 17.5N between 118.5W and 121W, while
scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends elsewhere
from 10N to 17N between 117W and 124W. Julio has accelerated its
forward motion this morning, and combined with northwesterly
upper level wind shear, the center has become exposed to the
north of the area of strong convection. Julio is expected to move
quickly northward, continue to weaken, and gradually become
absorbed within the outer eastern circulation of Iselle this
evening through tonight.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details on these two systems.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 107W, from 07N to 19N, moving westward
at 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 100W and 111W.
The tropical wave previously along 110W is gradually merging with
the wave now along 107W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N109W, then resumes
SW of Julio from 15N122W to low pres near 10N138W 1007 mb to
beyond 09.5N140W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves, T.S. Julio and T.S. Iselle described above,
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to
08.5N E of 90W, and from 02N to 13N between 90W and 100W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 04N to 12N between 121W and 143W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for more information
about T.S. Iselle.
Tropical Storm Iselle is moving away from the Mexican offshore
waters, located near 20.9N 121.1W at 8 AM PDT, moving west-northwest
at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt,
and the minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The proximity of
Iselle continues to disrupt the ridge to its north, and into the
Baja offshore waters. This is maintaining light to gentle
northerly winds across the Baja California waters and similar N
to NE winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 7 to
11 ft in S-SW swell from Iselle across the Baja Sur waters, and 5
to 7 ft across the Baja Norte waters. Seas are 4 to 5 ft
elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters W
of Puerto Angel. Winds and seas are gradually diminishing across
the Revillagigedo Islands and area waters as Iselle gradually
moves away from that area, as seas remain around 12 ft. Gentle to
moderate NW to W gap winds prevail across central and southern
portions of the Gulf of California. A large cluster of strong
thunderstorms covers much of the area across the entrance to the
Gulf to Las Tres Marias, and are supported by an upper level low
pressure system. This activity is shifting northward. Otherwise,
fresh to strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N with 6 to 8 ft seas.
For the forecast, Iselle will continue to move west-northwestward
and away from the area waters, while gradually weakening,
reaching near 21.4N 122.5W this evening, and 22.0N 124.1W Wed
morning. Large S-SW swell from Iselle will continue to move
through the Baja waters today through early Wed before quickly
subsiding. Elsewhere, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to
pulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region during the
overnight and early morning hours through the upcoming weekend,
with seas occasionally building to 8-9 ft. Looking ahead, another
tropical wave and developing low pressure area will follow a
similar trajectory as Iselle, Thu through the weekend, and impact
the outer offshore waters near the Revillagigedo Islands within
increasing winds and seas.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo
region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.
Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are S of 03N and between
the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate or weaker winds
are found elsewhere, with slight to moderate seas in SW swell.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms continue
across the waters from 02.5N to 08.5N between Colombia and 90W,
including the entrance to the Gulf of Panama, and nearshore
waters of western Panama, and Cost Rica.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds will
pulse to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each night
through Sat night building seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to
fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the
outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through the
end of the week. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally
fresh S winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue
night and then prevail through the remainder forecast period.
Otherwise, cross- equatorial SW swell will move into the area
waters Thu night through Fri.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section for more information about
T.S. Iselle and T.S. Julio.
High pressure of 1020 mb located near 35N130W extends a broad
ridge south and southeastward to approximately 118W, and drapes
across Iselle. The pressure gradient between these features and
low pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 25N and W of
130W per recent satellite scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh
SW to W winds are south of the monsoon W of 131W while moderate
to fresh E winds accompany the tropical wave near 107W. South of
the monsoon trough and between 115W and 125W, fresh S-SW winds
are feeding into Julio and the eastern side of Iselle.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julio will move northward,
weaken and gradually become absorbed in the larger circulation of
Iselle, as Iselle shifts west-northwestward between 20N and 25N,
before dissipating Fri. A tropical wave located near 107W, well
to the SW of SW Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form by the end of the week while it
moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore
of Mexico. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone
formation within the next two days and high chance of development
through 7 days.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore
of Central America late this week or this weekend. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early
next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. This system has a low
chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next two days
and a medium chance of development through 7 days.
$$
Stripling