720
AXPZ20 KNHC 162050
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 16 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 93W, from 06N to 15N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to
15N between 92W and 98W.
A tropical wave is along 103W, north of 06N to 17N, moving west
at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the southern
half of the wave.
A tropical wave is along 121W from 07N to 17N, moving west at
10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this wave.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N105W to 10N126W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N126W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to
the convection described above in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active within
200 nm on either side of the boundaries between 108W and 112W and W
of 128W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh southerly winds prevail over the northern Gulf of
California, between lower pressure over the Colorado River
Valley and higher pressure over central Mexico. Moderate seas
persist over the northern and central Gulf of California, with
slight seas farther south. To the west, weak ridging extends from
high pressure centered over the north-central Pacific to near
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. This pattern
is supporting moderate NW breezes and moderate seas off Baja
California. Pulsing fresh N winds are noted over the Tehuantepec
region. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are noted
farther south off southern Mexico.
For the forecast, fresh S winds will persist across northern and
central Gulf of California through tonight between low pressure
over the Colorado River Valley and higher pressure over central
Mexico. Pulsing fresh N winds at night will continue through
midweek over the Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere, a ridge will
persist west of the Baja California peninsula into early next
week, supporting gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate seas.
Farther south, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW
swell will persist across the remainder of the Mexican offshore
waters.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle westerly winds dominate the offshore waters
north of 06N while gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted
south of 06N. Moderate seas prevail across the whole area.
For the forecast, light to gentle westerly winds will continue
across the waters north of 05N through the weekend while gentle
to moderate southerly winds are expected south of 05N. Cross-
equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the
regional waters, keeping seas in the moderate range, except in
the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak ridging remains in place north of 15N, west of 120W,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 15N west of
135W. Recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to
fresh SE winds south of 05N between 115W and 135W. Gentle to
moderate breezes and moderate seas in a mix of SW and NW swell
persist elsewhere.
For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
middle of next week. Combined seas will be rough in pockets
south of 10N and west of 130W through Sun, due to a combination
fresh SE and NE winds. Winds and seas will subside Mon, but
expect another surge of southerly swell south of the monsoon
trough between 115W and 135W by midweek. Little change is
expected elsewhere.
$$
ERA
AXPZ20 KNHC 162050
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 16 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is along 93W, from 06N to 15N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to
15N between 92W and 98W.
A tropical wave is along 103W, north of 06N to 17N, moving west
at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the southern
half of the wave.
A tropical wave is along 121W from 07N to 17N, moving west at
10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this wave.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N105W to 10N126W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N126W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to
the convection described above in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active within
200 nm on either side of the boundaries between 108W and 112W and W
of 128W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh southerly winds prevail over the northern Gulf of
California, between lower pressure over the Colorado River
Valley and higher pressure over central Mexico. Moderate seas
persist over the northern and central Gulf of California, with
slight seas farther south. To the west, weak ridging extends from
high pressure centered over the north-central Pacific to near
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. This pattern
is supporting moderate NW breezes and moderate seas off Baja
California. Pulsing fresh N winds are noted over the Tehuantepec
region. Light to gentle breezes and slight seas are noted
farther south off southern Mexico.
For the forecast, fresh S winds will persist across northern and
central Gulf of California through tonight between low pressure
over the Colorado River Valley and higher pressure over central
Mexico. Pulsing fresh N winds at night will continue through
midweek over the Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere, a ridge will
persist west of the Baja California peninsula into early next
week, supporting gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate seas.
Farther south, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW
swell will persist across the remainder of the Mexican offshore
waters.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle westerly winds dominate the offshore waters
north of 06N while gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted
south of 06N. Moderate seas prevail across the whole area.
For the forecast, light to gentle westerly winds will continue
across the waters north of 05N through the weekend while gentle
to moderate southerly winds are expected south of 05N. Cross-
equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the
regional waters, keeping seas in the moderate range, except in
the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Weak ridging remains in place north of 15N, west of 120W,
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 15N west of
135W. Recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to
fresh SE winds south of 05N between 115W and 135W. Gentle to
moderate breezes and moderate seas in a mix of SW and NW swell
persist elsewhere.
For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
middle of next week. Combined seas will be rough in pockets
south of 10N and west of 130W through Sun, due to a combination
fresh SE and NE winds. Winds and seas will subside Mon, but
expect another surge of southerly swell south of the monsoon
trough between 115W and 135W by midweek. Little change is
expected elsewhere.
$$
ERA